SACRAMENTO, CA - Mail-in and provisional ballots still need to be counted, but if the defeat of Proposition 29, the $1-per-pack cigarette tax, holds, it could spell trouble for Gov. Jerry Brown's tax initiative in November.
He wants to temporarily raise the income tax on high wage earners and the sales tax on everyone to prevent further budget cuts to schools and universities.
"I think the message from voters is that Californians are over-taxed and are very disinclined to support any additional tax increases," Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association spokesperson Jon Coupal said.
But some school leaders think you can't compare the cigarette tax battle to the upcoming fight to save public education. They point out voters approved nearly two-thirds of local government and school tax and bond measures Tuesday.
"When they understand the linkage between the governor's measure being the only hope to help schools avoid further cuts, I think the voters will be there for us," Schools Finance Consultant Kevin Gordon said.
Recent election history, though, is not on Brown's side.
Statewide tax measures have had a bad run, not one has passed since 2004; that the year voters agreed to an extra tax on millionaires to fund mental health services.
So in looking at Prop. 29's probable loss where voters are unwilling to tax smokers, it raises questions over whether they're willing to tax the rich and pay more themselves at cash registers.
It makes parents like Sheryl Fong nervous about the November election because schools can't take any more cuts.
"I'm very worried because at schools today, we're hearing about class sizes ... we're hearing about pink slips," Fong said.
While voter sentiment Tuesday doesn't necessarily mean doom for Brown's tax measure, it does suggest his supporters have their work cut out for them.
"It's always clear that it's easier to get a no vote than it is a yes vote," Gordon said.
By Nannette Miranda